This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Milwaukee that is going to be the previous UFC on FOX card due to the new ESPN deal. We are back to getting smaller prize pools for this particular occasion but there’s still good money to be won. The most important GPP is a $10 entrance with $15,000 to 1st place. Those big GPPs with a nice high trophy are always my favourite contests to pursue so I will be taking some shots in that. Aside from that, I will adhere to my 3-entry max & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs through the week and that I will find a fantastic quantity of play in games. Here are a Couple of plays I like for Saturday and my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is nearly always the best fight to get into money games and stacking both fighters out of a 5-round fight usually makes a whole lot of sense. I think you can stack the main event here as well, but I believe Kevin Lee is the must play of both. He’s a -335 favorite and -135 ITD so if he wins he is going to score highly and according to Vegas he’s a 77% chance of winning. In addition, he scored 164 DK points in his last fight so not only does he even have a top ground, but he probably has the highest ceiling on the card too. This is where I’ll be starting my cash lineup this week.
GPP drama of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
After weigh-ins we saw a great deal of cash come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is virtually a PK fight on the betting odds now. Usually when that happens we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership because of the value. I think Gordon’s possession will go down due to that and that is what makes him a fantastic GPP play. Gordon strikes in the highest rate on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes every minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns per 15-minutes. He doesn’t even require a finish to score 100+ points and that is the reason why I enjoy him in this spot. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but when he does win then he must score well.
Underdog drama of this week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is $1,200 cheaper than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he’s just +115 in comparison to Milstead’s -135 gaming lineup. I adore the value we’re getting there, and I believe Rodriguez wins this fight. I do expect him to become among the most well-known underdogs on the card, however it’s chalk I am prepared to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is likely going to be by knockout so not just could he have the triumph, but he’d score highly too. I believe if he can win this fight then he ends up on the 1st place lineup and he’s my favourite underdog of this week because of this.
Fade of this week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I’m not fading Klose since I believe he loses, I am really picking him to acquire a Unanimous Decision here. I’m fading him since he’s $9.3k and with his fighting style that I don’t see him becoming more than 10x that salary. If I’m making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will probably be in 0 of these. Klose has 3 UFC wins thus far in his profession and he’s scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in those 3 wins. When he scores around that region again in this fight, then pretty much kills your odds in winning a GPP as the other guys in that $9k range likely score higher and likely even over 100-points. That makes Klose my fade of this week.
If you’d like my full-card DraftKings breakdown with analysis on each fight, my personal strategies & suggestions, and also my pick prediction for every single fight then you can find that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium stakes are available at that link as well. I am 47-28 to get +169.81un (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I am also +75.37u the last 7 months!)
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